Possible tropical development later this week between Outer Banks and Bahamas

Clear skies and warm conditions continued Sunday afternoon along the Outer Banks, while a tropical wave and upper level low begin to interact near the Bahamas. Tropical Storm Nicholas (bottom left) is getting better organized in the Gulf of Mexico. [NOAA image]

The National Weather Service is giving a heads up that there is potential for tropical development off the southeast U.S. coast later this week and the first part of next weekend.

“An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough,” the National Hurricane Center said Sunday evening.

While there is a large amount of uncertainty in development, the area was at a 50 percent probability of formation of a tropical cyclone in the five-day outlook.

“Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of
the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic.”

Tropical Storm Nicholas formed Sunday in the Bay of Campeche and is expected to produce heavy rain and flash flooding across portions of southern Mexico, Texas and Louisiana this week.

And there are a couple of other spots in the eastern Atlantic that could see tropical development in the days ahead.

Meanwhile along the Outer Banks, high pressure over the area is forecast to bring hot and humid conditions. A few showers are expected starting Thursday as moisture increases over the region.

National Weather Service forecast for Nags Head, as of Sunday 5:30 p.m.:

Tonight
Clear, with a low around 72. Southwest wind around 15 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 7 to 13 mph.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 73. Southwest wind 11 to 13 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 87. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 73. South wind 10 to 14 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 86.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 73.
Thursday
A chance of showers after 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

 

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Sam Walker was news director for OBXToday.com, Beach 104, 99.1 The Sound, Big 94.5 WCMS and Z 92.3 from August 2011 to March 2022.